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Old 10-25-16, 01:51 PM   #3365
Bilge_Rat
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the polls are rigged.

Trump has been saying it, for what it is worth, but since I look at the polls often I had noticed the same thing. Polls by many media organization often show a 10+ advantage to Clinton, while polls by more independent pollsters often show only a 3-5 points gap.

It turns out the Clinton campaign were rigging the polls to get more favorable results, per Wikileaks:

Quote:
Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

Quote:
I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.
As to what oversampling is, it means including more favorable, i.e. more democrats, in your polls than are in the electorate:

Quote:
Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

Quote:
"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."
Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...gh-oversamples
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