Quote:
Originally Posted by Torplexed
It is a mistake of even more monumental proportions to try to save the Greeks from themselves.
Let them go.
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I think what's happened here is a game of bluff that's gone horrendously wrong.
I think after the Oxi vote, Tspiras was prepared to forge a deal with Germany, he was willing to play the 'madman' card, he would go to Germany and basically state that he was willing to obey the wishes of his people and take Greece out of the Eurozone and default, with all the economic trouble that would cause Germany if he did not get a better deal, but ultimately what he wanted more than anything was to secure a deal.
Germany, meanwhile, had had enough, it couldn't see any way that increasing Greeces debt was going to help it, so it was decided that they'd make Greece an offer they'd have to refuse. Set the terms so strict that Greece couldn't possibly accept them.
Only Greece did accept them, after a bit of wrangling, and now Germany has to go along with the whole bailout deal.
Of course, there is a small chance that the German parliament won't pass the bailout terms, but I strongly doubt it.
Personally, the way I'd go about it is to give Greece the bailout, but as part of a transitioned exit from the Eurozone, taking place over the course of a year, and at which point their account within the EU would be frozen, and any further money given would be in the form of aid packages, thus not requiring repayment. Greece would have twelve months to mint and print Drachmas and to prepare its internal industry and people for Grexit, a task that would be assisted by the IMF and Greece.
In regards to 'Haircuts', that's something that could be negotiated once Greece is outside the Eurozone, perhaps as a part of industrial concessions to German businesses or the like. However to help Greece with its trade (what little there is) the EU rates should be retained.