IRAI is likely also factoring into this.
One thing I do know for sure, if air never sees me on my way close to the eastern coastal waters (been there for 2 months; 2 patrols, 1 refit) I can sail around during the day with relative impunity as long as I'm lucky enough to not be in one of their patrol flightpaths.
I think if they DO see you they will run missions down that bearing more often.
If I'm ever seen by air while in my patrol area, I always dive for the rest of the day. I move my AO at least 30km.
I stay submerged to use the sound guy anyway, so when I finally do get a contact there aren't planes already knowing I'm in the area keeping me down.
Edit:Using TWoS
I also have had a few scary airplanes at night. Never gave them a chance to see if they could see me or even hostile.
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