Quote:
Originally Posted by Aktungbby
Clarence Wade McClusky-turner of the tide of battle. The case for luck rests! 
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While I certainly agree that McCluskey was a resourceful first rate naval airman worthy of all accolades, I think in many respects his decision shows how luck evens out. First of all, McCluskey's group was one of the two SBD groups that hit the Japanese carriers more or less simultaneously. His group had to stretch the limits of their fuel because a known Japanese course change, which occurred
after his group launched, and was not reported to him via radio. Had it been reported to him, he would have found the target anyhow. So, that outcome (McCluskey finding the targets) was predicated on two lucky "breaks" that favored the Japanese and one that favored the Americans. The two pro-Japanese breaks were the fortuitous unplanned course change, and the US decision to not report the course change to McCluskey. The pro-US break was McCluskey reasoning that the Japanese destroyer lagging behind was an element of the carrier group.
The destroyer
Arashi was there to hunt for the US sub
Nautilus with which contact had instigated the Japanese course change, so you can't lay the observation of the Japanese destroyer as a lucky break. Had the US sub not been there for the DD to be dealing with the Japanese would not have changed course at all. In that event McClusky would not have had to extend his search.
The *other* (non-McCluskey) group was directed to the correct position because it was launched after the Japanese course change was known. No matter how you slice it, the Japanese lose at least two carriers in the initial US attack, even if you cut McCluskey out of the equation entirely. Which is basically the result that the Japanese obtained in their pre-operational wargame of the plan (the infamous wargame in which Admiral Ugaki interfered with the umpire's results and re-floated the
Akagi, because he didn't like the results).
Most of the events in battles that are attributed to luck can be more usefully attributed to one of three things. 1.) A bad plan. 2.) A good plan badly executed. 3.) Insufficient assessment of enemy capability. It often seems that 99% of the time when someone invokes "luck" it is a case of CYA analysis.
At Midway Japan suffered the consequences of both 1 and 3.