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Originally Posted by CCIP

which is an indirect way of saying "the USN didn't leave much to chance and planned carefully, so they could make sure that things would go right and the Japanese would fall for the trap." Otherwise, actual luck didn't enter into this discussion until you'd mentioned it. And I think you'll have seen some excellent posts from several people - thanks to Kazuaki Shimazaki for also bringing in a very valid point about the Washington treaties - that actually did a great job of explaining some of the very logical historical issues here.

Actually luck entered into all of it at the critical moment at Midway. Not only was the American carrier point NE of Midway dubbed Point Luck, but the attack on the Japanese carriers, given the extreme range of Spruance's launch/delays coupled with the deplorable attack by Waldron's Torpedo 8 all culminated on one man and luck as fuel was running short and some planes were ditching. "The two squadrons from Enterprise were running low on fuel because of the time spent looking for the enemy. However, squadron commander C. Wade McClusky Jr decided to continue the search, and by good fortune spotted the wake of the Japanese destroyer Arashi, steaming at full speed to rejoin Nagumo's carriers after having unsuccessfully depth-charged U.S. submarine Nautilus, which had earlier unsuccessfully attacked the battleship Kirishima. Some bombers were lost from fuel exhaustion before the attack commenced. McClusky's decision to continue the search and his sole judgment, in the opinion of Admiral Nimitz, "decided the fate of our carrier task force and our forces at Midway ..."[wiki] All three American dive-bomber squadrons (VB-6, VS-6 and VB-3) arrived almost simultaneously at the perfect time, locations and altitudes to attack. In short, all plan A preparations and preliminary ground work aside, and running on plan B due to distance, bad spotting reports, and fuel mishaps came down to one squadron commander tossing aside his initial info and taking a terrible gamble on a lone enemy destroyer's heading to arrive over the carriers of the enemy...His pluck and a whole lotta luck as to the enemy carriers' vulnerability and lack of high air cover directly caused the a ten-minute window of time/opportunity that changed the course of the war. ArashiUSS Nutilaus: 1st patrol at Midway and her plucky commander LCDR Brockman Clarence Wade McClusky-turner of the tide of battle> The case for luck rests!