[CCIP]

Here's the thing: Russians are people. Like most people, they like food on the table and a sense of security. There's no mystery to Putin's popularity among a majority of Russians - so far, his regime has done a better job of out than any immediate alternative. Take away that security, and the support will eventually melt away. And it will.

Otherwise, this is exactly what I'm talking about with obsolete nation-state thinking - dividing people into "us" and "them", generalizing a multi-ethnic, extremely complex society into something you can be right or wrong about, ascribing mythical qualities to banal economic realities. The problem is that when you replace "Russia" with "the west" and "Iskanders in the Kaliningrad oblast" with "F-15s in Lithuania", you begin to see the mindset of Russians who are also wondering if they ever knew the West or something.

Nationalist thinking is a cancer. The only reason that Russia seems more dangerous with it than the Ukraine or Poland is that Russia is bigger and has nuclear weapons. Otherwise it's all the same to me. As to the Ukraine - and let's not forget this discussion is still about the Ukraine - it's still important to remember that nationalist thinking and inability to solve problems of federalization and economics is what got them there.