[CCIP]

Here is another angle on the problem: militarily, is it really arms shortages and Russians that are the problem?

I'm open to looking at any sources that I'm provided with, but last I checked Ukraine ranked 25th on the global firepower index, with 160,000 active troops and a million reserves, nearly 3000 tanks, over 8000 AFVs, and nearly 4000 barrels of heavy artillery. They have a domestic munition industry that should be able to more than adequately provide for their needs.

Meanwhile, from any credible source I can discern, I haven't seen any estimate of more than 7000 Russians operating in the Ukraine (and more realistically, 3-4000) and a total separatist force that's maybe 20-25k troops. What problem is the sending of arms going to address, exactly?

It strikes me that the real problems are those of organization and logistics, and maybe more importantly of morale and motivation. And as I see it, the well-armed but disorganized and disillusioned Ukrainian army is hardly going to benefit from any escalation - and here we begin to enter a slippery slope of arming militias which, shall we say, are morally nuanced.

As for Russia, the current level of their involvement is a drop in the bucket. It doesn't begin to dent their resources (and in fact any cost of their involvement had already been more than compensated for in the budget), while politically, any escalation only helps the media circus and bolsters support for Putin's regime. They can keep escalating away for a while yet without changing tack. There's literally nothing short of a direct military commitment from the west that will change their approach, because it works. And a direct ultimatum from the west won't happen.

So as I see it, the "military solution" and supplying arms is a non-starter. Lack of arms, in a nation that until recently had been a major arms exporter, does not add up. Personally, as I see it, someone (besides Putin) sees political gain to be made from escalating the conflict, while someone else sees a business opportunity in furnishing "promotional samples" of weaponry to a military that doesn't seem to need it. Knowing how business is usually done in the Ukraine, particularly seeing Poroshenko's stature in Ukrainian business (and one does not simply walk into Ukrainian business without some greased palms), I can already begin to guess how that discussion probably went down...

I reiterate: don't send arms to Ukraine. Don't escalate this war if you care about actual Ukrainian lives.