[Skybird]

Currently, people are not dying, or less people are dying. Taken for itself, that is good, compared to a war being fought.

But politically the acceptance of that cease-fire is a de facto defeat for Poroshenko, and I assume he and his party will pay the price for that in the upcoming elections. It seems his army was no longer capable to continue the fight currently with any realistic chances. Seen that way it may speak for him that he does not needlessly sacrifice his soldiers just to keep up his ego and political fate. On the other hand, he is one of those oligarchs, and one should never forget that, not for one moment.

The undisputed winner is Putin so far. He took a gamble, he surprised and bluffed the west and caught him on the wrong foot - and he will get away with it. He has gotten all his objective of which i would assume he had them: the Crimean is Russian, the Ukraine de facto is split, the Eastern areas still are not Russian-owned so mst not be paid for and economically maintained by Russia, but Kiev, a threat to always advance forther along the coast is a big stick for any upcomign negotiations, the Russian influnce in Kiev'S internal politics is secured because in case of autonomy for the Eastern provinces this could onkly mean a federalist structure of the ukraine. A NATO membership is extremely unlikely, so is an EU membership. Game, set and match Putin, if the situation does not dramatically change.

The fiscal sanctions the Russian central bank currently tries to compensate for by using the same methods that the Fed and the ECB are using: they print money. It will not do Russia worse than what it does America or the EU, but it will make Russia needing to suffer the same consequences from that fiscal lunacy - I mean policy, like America and Europe.

Another winner there is in the background: China.

If the cease fir eholds and leads to negotiations, Russia most likely will get what it wants: an unadmitted de facto acceptance of the status quo on the ground.

There is a chance for two other scenarios: Russia just trying on to endlessly poke Ukraine's eyes and trying to unsettle the state without and end in time, just to destabilize it and by that securing Russian influence. And a furthe rRussian advance in a bit for grabbing more Ukrainian territory. I see both scenarios currently as less likely than the scenairo I just explained before. Becasue the scenario I explained before maximises Russian benefits and gains while reducing their costs. It's the best possible outcome for Russia. The other two scenarios cost them more and give them less.

Question is whether Putin ticks by this logic, or not.

Some say there is one good thing for the West, that is that the whole issue served as a wake-up call for NATO. But so far the reactions only were symbolic, and the decisions announced lack substance that would really make a difference. The financial situation in he West is just one reason for that.