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A fragmentation warhead is not to be compared like a shotgun filled with 20 tiny bullets of the same size, but the fragmentation pattern and size of fragmentation cannot be predicted, like in an exploding handgrenaded. At best you have assembled it such a way that there are wanted rated break points, but even then you have a random generation of unpredictability to which degree each fragment follows that wanted breaking line, or is shorter or larger.
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Fragmentation warheads explode in quite predictable pattern.
In particular in anti aircraft missiles...a lot of rocket science goes into that to make those weapons effective at intercepting warplanes .
We have seen some little bits a pieces.
A radar guided missile fired at airplane on relatively constant course would lead it by design and possibly explode in the front - which is also ideal by design.
Un aware passenger jet is ideal target.
from what I seen on some reconstruction pictures most of the damage is under on lower side of the jet and also wing , it makes sense.
Now ..you have the airplane disintegrating , sheet metal tearing , bits and pieces turning into splinters and all this eventually impacting the ground.
You not necessarily need see exit hole from exploding shells unless you really have to.
This two plane theory about and exit holes next to entry ones ...was the plane shot down by blue angels?