Quote:
Originally Posted by ikalugin
Ukraine is a critical interest of Russia. Pressuring Russia to abandon it using economical measures would not help, it only shows hostile intent, which pressures Russian authorities to take more extreme measures to secure Russian critical national interests.
As to the USSR - the "defensive" posture has been taken in 1988. Previously (70s-80s) USSR was looking into the preemtive attacks, as to avoid the 1941 like disaster. This is why Soviets (pre 1988) were for example expanding their tank divisions into corps, to act as OMGs for the Army level formations.
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The Sovjets learned against the Wehrmacht that they were only winning battles when they were attacking and took the offensive. When they defended, they got mauled. And that was what happened time and again especially in the first half of the war. This explains the later offensive doctrine after WWII: defending by attacking first, so to speak.
On sanctions, Russia already is looking for how to replace the food import that broke away after it banned many of them in retaliation against EU exporters. Brasil stands on guard, Faroer Islands (fish), Turkey (while the Greek were locke dout by the Kremlin), and some others, but also dubious allies like China and Belarus. This so far is hushed and done in a hurry, and will take time to be tuned into better efficiency. However, the longer the sanction regime is in place and retaliation will be in place as well, the more the statuzs shifts from contemprtaqry deals and impovised trade relations into stabile, fully suppported trade relations - and once the latter is established Russia will see little reasoin to give them up again at a later time to move back to an older trading with Western suppliers. Why should it want that then? The Wetsenr attempt of fiscal retaliatioin by targetting the money sector and the banks, also most likely will backfire. while foreiogn investors may flee and their money with them,. this will only increase the ambition by Krenmlin to topple the dollar regime in the Eastern part of the world. Diufferent to China Russia has diversified its reserves much more than China that is holding trillions in toxic US state bonds - and that cost China extreely high losses when the dollar weakens. China has beocme aware of that problem and tries to get away from that by buying old like crazy. So does Russia since 2007 at the latest, having doubled its gold reserves since 2007, and having added additonal 10% of its volume in the first 6-7 months of this year, and still buying.
I think this confrontation now more or less directly will formally introduce the opening of the big currency world war that is about to begin. As a matter of fact it already has begun many years ago, but it will win in pace and drive due to the Ukraine war. As long as the Western governments remain successful in manipulating the gold price (ironically probably in cooperation whith Gold-buying China and Russia) to keep it low and the public unalarmed about the state of things, the public in the West will not really care. But the Euro will break Europe's neck, and the dollar has lasted for the longest time for sure. What will come after the Euro, is uncertain, most likely a return to national paper (credit) currencies, and the dollar: most likely also already sees stockpiled new dollarnotes secretly hidden away in some hidden location in the US, a Dollar II, so to speak. So in the West, after the current papermoney probably another papermoney will be enforced on the people. Whether China and Russia will follow that and would accept these new currencies - is a completey different question. I say they will not.
Regarding the currencies, those people indeed are right who claim that world war three already is raging.