Quote:
Originally Posted by Oberon
If Russia went into Eastern Ukraine and stayed there, then I could see NATO forces deploying into western Ukraine at a later date, not in order to engage Russian forces, but in order to 'defend Ukraine' against Russia, in a manner not dissimilar to east and west Germany in the cold war.
Honestly though I don't see Russia deploying into eastern Ukraine in force any time soon, not unless something major changes in the meantime.
Either which way, neither NATO or Russia wants to go to war with each other and both will take as many measures as they can to avoid such a thing, however both will also do their best to outsmart the other and gain an advantage wherever they can. It's old Cold War tactics, and we didn't go to war with Russia back then.  |
As I said earlier, I still welcome a split of the Ukraine. It would sort things that currently are muddy, unstructured mess. It would bring stability ot the suffering population in the East. It would bring a clear lijne drawing between NATO and Russia in that part of the world. Further advanatge is that ti would likely cause an economic competition between East and West like it was over Germany, where both germans states served as showrooms for both systems that tried to outshine the other - and although the GDR did loose that cpompetition, it neverthelss was the richest and most well-supplied state in the Warsaw Pact. The Russian could implement law and order int heir part of the Ukraine, increasing stability. Thew west would satill need to dela with the corrupt, criminal gangs forming and owning almost all aspects of the Ukrainian politeska. Plenty of money would be poumped by both sides intoi their respective parts of the Ukraine, which nevertheless should help to improve the situation of the general population.
The Ukrainian state there is now, was a misconception and a stillbirth from day one on, imo. And it borders the description of a failed state.
If you want to anger Putin, give him the East. Its a sack of problems, costs and needed financial investments that all come at Russia'S cost. In chess it would be called a gambit, or a poisoned pawn. Accepeting the offered "advantage" and taking the pawn, comes at a cost that outweighs the material gain.
BTW, Ukraine has threatened the EU with disrupting gas deliveries from Russia to Europe that transit the Ukraine, warning it might take these for itself. And nevertheless let the West pay for it. Nice "friends" Brussels has choosen there! Still not consolidated in their new position - but already blackmailing us.