[Skybird]

Like Oberon said, each toy plays in its dedicated playground. As long as that is so, I always put my money on the sub. If both sides are on temporary technology levels, it still will not win always. But most of the time, I assume, and very clearly so. The American concept of carrier battle groups imo only works in small wars against minor, inferior enemies that cannot really bite back. Against an enemy with a decent capacity in waging submarine warfare, this doctrine basing on carrier groups imo is doomed to fail.

Also take into account the Chinese carrier killer missiles. They improve them at frightening pace.

Military thinkers tend to repeat methods by which they won the last war. By that they often miss that time and technology and knowledge have moved on. So it was with battleships in WWII. So I think it will be with carriers in the next possible major conflict (China). Not even mentioning the growing number of increasingly improved Chinese subs.