[CCIP]

So far, I think it's important to look at points on which all sides agree.

So, first of all, it seems everyone - Russia, Ukraine, rebels and Western observers - agree that this was an SA-11 launcher. There seems to be very little if any disagreement about this.

As of the past hour, both the Donetsk rebels and Ukraine have indicated that no Ukrainian SA-11s were captured by the militants from any Ukrainian bases, and certainly none that would be operable. If those two sides agree, pretty likely that it's true.

The shootdown location rules out that it was shot down from Russian territory - the wreck lies outside of the SA-11's maximum engagement zone. Same is almost certainly true of Ukrainian government-controlled territory.

There is universal agreement that aircraft were fired on in the area - including a Su-25 and An-26 that were shot down over the region over the past two days. The An-26 was reportedly hit at 25,000 feet. Rebels claimed those kills and the losses were confirmed by Ukraine.

So, thus far, signs point to a Russian-provided SAM operated on behalf of the rebels as the most likely version.