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Jaystew · 06-29-14, 02:44 PM

I dont think Germany winning the war was never out of the question until 1944/1945.

If they had had more U-boats or XXIs in 1939/1940 they could have caused some very serious havok during the "Miracle at Dunkirk" when 300,000 BEF and French forces lived to fight another day escaping to the UK over the sea.

This was more a failure of the air force because Germany was at a substantial naval dis advantage against the British but Germany had the air advantage against the UK.

1940/1941 was also the timeframe Germany could have easily taken the UK out of the war with a land invasion of the UK. Operation Sea Lion exist for just that purpose. In 1939 there was still half a continent opposing them and they did not have the number of divisions to support a land invasion but in 1940 though they did not have air supremacy they did have plenty of French Air bases, they did have the whole European coast under defensive construction and they had a very determined anti-sea campaign underway forcing the British to spread their naval defenses out.

According to "Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" by William L Shrier the British in 1940 and early 1941 had essentially no homeland defense that could have fought off 10-20 divisions of German troops.

Suppose Germany had launched Sealion in late 1940 or early 1941 and it had succeeded. The UK would have been out of the war. Do you think the USA would have entered the war against Germany before December 7th 1941? I think it is highly unlikely. I think just like in WWI the USA of the 1930s and 1940s would have let European issues be solved by European players. This is not to say that covert or unofficial actions subverting the Germans and supporting the British would have been sanctioned or performed, but if the UK collapsed the Americans would have had very little in the way of motivation to go to war with Germany.

Sealion needed a few things to succeed. They needed to mine the entrance to the English Channel on both ends this to effectively keep the British Navy out of the channel or make it very difficult for them to get in without taking losses. They needed air superiority to protect the troop transports.

Hitler was the one who wouldn't take the gamble and the generals and admirals were smartly not for the invasion on the grounds that it would very likely not succeed. But if they had gambled and won, the war could have turned out a lot different.

By early 1941 the UK would have been out of the war, USA not very likely to come into the war, until Japan attacked in Dec 41 by which time the USSR probably would have been all but defeated by Germany could have waited another year or gone ahead with Operation Barbarossa and if they had waited another year they may have succeeded because they wouldn't have had to devote resources to fighting against the British.

The African campaigns would have been very much diminished in importance compared to the UK homeland. Without support from UK itself troops in Africa would not have been able to sustain a fight against Germany or deliver the defeat they did.

06-29-14, 02:44 PM	#17
Jaystew Sparky Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 151 Downloads: 50 Uploads: 0	I dont think Germany winning the war was never out of the question until 1944/1945. If they had had more U-boats or XXIs in 1939/1940 they could have caused some very serious havok during the "Miracle at Dunkirk" when 300,000 BEF and French forces lived to fight another day escaping to the UK over the sea. This was more a failure of the air force because Germany was at a substantial naval dis advantage against the British but Germany had the air advantage against the UK. 1940/1941 was also the timeframe Germany could have easily taken the UK out of the war with a land invasion of the UK. Operation Sea Lion exist for just that purpose. In 1939 there was still half a continent opposing them and they did not have the number of divisions to support a land invasion but in 1940 though they did not have air supremacy they did have plenty of French Air bases, they did have the whole European coast under defensive construction and they had a very determined anti-sea campaign underway forcing the British to spread their naval defenses out. According to "Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" by William L Shrier the British in 1940 and early 1941 had essentially no homeland defense that could have fought off 10-20 divisions of German troops. Suppose Germany had launched Sealion in late 1940 or early 1941 and it had succeeded. The UK would have been out of the war. Do you think the USA would have entered the war against Germany before December 7th 1941? I think it is highly unlikely. I think just like in WWI the USA of the 1930s and 1940s would have let European issues be solved by European players. This is not to say that covert or unofficial actions subverting the Germans and supporting the British would have been sanctioned or performed, but if the UK collapsed the Americans would have had very little in the way of motivation to go to war with Germany. Sealion needed a few things to succeed. They needed to mine the entrance to the English Channel on both ends this to effectively keep the British Navy out of the channel or make it very difficult for them to get in without taking losses. They needed air superiority to protect the troop transports. Hitler was the one who wouldn't take the gamble and the generals and admirals were smartly not for the invasion on the grounds that it would very likely not succeed. But if they had gambled and won, the war could have turned out a lot different. By early 1941 the UK would have been out of the war, USA not very likely to come into the war, until Japan attacked in Dec 41 by which time the USSR probably would have been all but defeated by Germany could have waited another year or gone ahead with Operation Barbarossa and if they had waited another year they may have succeeded because they wouldn't have had to devote resources to fighting against the British. The African campaigns would have been very much diminished in importance compared to the UK homeland. Without support from UK itself troops in Africa would not have been able to sustain a fight against Germany or deliver the defeat they did.