I found that the mod TDW_DC_Water_Disturbance_v4_0_SH3 caused exactly the same CTD behavior when running in my mod configuration (33 mods).
I'm not about to condemn TDW_DC_Water_Disturbance_v4_0_SH3 as defective, for two reasons: First, The Dark Wraith is an outstanding programmer and modder, brilliant and conscientious. I do not believe he would release a product he hadn't tested thoroughly. Second, others use TDW_DC_Water_Disturbance_v4_0_SH3 and do not report problems, so the mod works fine in their environment.
That said, when I remove TDW_DC_Water_Disturbance_v4_0_SH3 from MY mod list, the CTD problem goes away. Others have reported similar results. It appears that something in TDW_DC_Water_Disturbance_v4_0_SH can interact with something in my mod list. An industrious person would work through the mod list and identify the other mod contributing to the problem. But when I finally found that I could eliminate my CTD problem by deactivating TDW_DC_Water_Disturbance_v4_0_SH, I was so overjoyed to be able to play the game again, that I haven't gone back and tried to characterize the problem.
So I suggest that you deactivate TDW_DC_Water_Disturbance_v4_0_SH and see if that eliminates your CTDs. Doing so won't allow you to recover saves that are now experiencing CTDs though. AFAIK, they are lost forever.
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