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Originally Posted by Admiral Halsey
Ok after thinking it over i'll add a wrinkle to this. It mainly concerns HOW the US is able to discover the plans. Basically sometime in 1940 JN25 is broken. Japan thinking that the code can never be broken doesn't change it in anyway until AFTER the Attack on Pearl.
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Maybe the best strategy at this point is to drop the strong hint in pre-war negotiations over the war in China, that the US is aware of the Japanese plans for a preemptive attack on Pearl Harbor and Clark Field in the Philippines, and that strong defensive measures are being taken.
At that point, Japan has lost its ace in the hole. Yamamoto, the chief architect of the attack on Pearl Harbor, “believed that it was impossible for Japan to win such a war.” But if there was any chance, Japan “had to gain the upper hand at the very beginning so that the United States just
might be enticed to the negotiating table.” That's not going to happen if US officials already know where Japan will strike first and hardest. There were also many ambivalent Japanese leaders and diplomats who realized Japan's chances of victory were slim to none, but were fearful of voicing opposition, or expected others to. Japanese Emperor Hirohito was among those who expressed reservations about going to war at times. So did Hideki Tojo, Japan’s wartime prime minister. Knowing that their high-stakes gamble now had no chance of surprise might have been enough to convince Japanese leadership to back down.