Admiral Nagumo goes swimming and I think you will likely end up with a super-Midway event. The Japanese are bringing six carriers and veteran pilots true, but in this case Oahu is a far more formidable installation than Midway, capable of basing and dispatching far more aircraft into the air. As always, a lot depends on who gest the first blow in, but foreknowledge is a huge advantage. The only fly in the ointment might be if the US carriers are spotted early by Japanese search planes. Nagumo might elect to retreat at that point.
Even if both carrier fleets end up in a shambles, USN pilots and personnel are far more likely to be rescued by their side than Kido Butai pilots.
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