Quote:
Originally Posted by Oberon
Reforger.  The exercises may have stopped but the infrastructure is still in place.
Russia is not the Soviet Union or Warsaw Pact, it doesn't have the benefit of the other nations armies to back it up, if it invades Europe and triggers the full force of NATO, then it will find itself in difficulty with 700k vs about 3mil. That's without calling up reserves.
Of course, you've got to get those units into position first, so the Atlantic would once again be quite a battleground, but Navy vs Navy we still have a fair advantage at this time in comparison of strength, especially with the US Navy on side. So, whilst Reforger is going on, there would be a harrassing attack on Russian forces moving through the Eastern states, mostly by airforce units and rapid response units, and you can beat that the Eastern states would fight like tigers, they have no wish to be under the Russian heel again, never underestimate Polish fighting, ever.
Also, as the Russians push forward, their supply lines get longer and eventually they are going to start running into supply problems and then NATO will look to counter-attack.
It's not the days of the Fulda Gap any more, whilst I would not go on record and say that NATO would win a war with Russia, because in a NATO/Russian war, no one would win because it would be too easy to start climbing up the escalation ladder and we all know what happens when you get to the top, however it's not overwhelming odds that it used to be back when the Black Horse used to stare down Ivan at OP Alpha.
Now, if Russia and China join forces and start things at the same time...then it gets a lot harder, and the likelihood of mushrooms sprouting increases exponentially. |
European armies are not what they have been anymore, too, oberon. An internal report from the German defence minstry from maybe two or three years ago said that Germany could no longer fulfill its NATO obligaiton in case of a full scale war. Navies have dramatically shrunk in size and capacity, whole technical fields of military competence have been given up across or have been turned into respurces now focussing oin asymmetrical warfares. Some nations have given up their fleet of platforms like MBTs. Logistical capacity have been dramatically reduced, ammo stockpiles have shrunk or are extremely old, questioning their efficiency against latest counter measures. The german army cannot even meet its perosnell needs now that the draft is gone. The physical quality of recruits is at an alltime low. Experience is getting lost across most branches of the forces, especially army and air force. And so on and on. Count the number of soldiers in your own Royal Army and ships in the Navy. Be aware that most of Greek tanks have no ammo since they bought the tanks, but no ammo for them.
But allk that is academical only. Any major war with an Europe invading Russia (which is aware it cannot do that anymore) still would be a nuclear war from day one on.
The point is that if Russia does not invade with the goal to get all of Europe, but just to take back the baltic sttaes, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, there is little NATO could do before the Russians have taken all of these. When NATO is ready to counterattack, the Russians already would be deeply dug in. With plenty of toys that the Iraqis did not have.
And as you already pointed out, with China starting to get angry in the Far East simultaneously, America would be seriously hampered in its ability to deal with two majhor wars at the same time. I did not beleive that already when Colin Powell reiterated that the US still could. Since then, even the official Washington has somewhat relativised that assessment. One major war at a time, is now the official view, it seems. and that is more realistic a self-assessment.
BTW, the POMCUS sites in Germany, Belgium and Netherlands have been given up completely, meanwhile. Their equipment no longer is there. That happened after they already were "cannibalised"
for the wars in Iraq 91 and 03.