SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - View Single Post - What if N-Germany had discovered Enigma had been cracked?

scandium · 03-18-06, 06:12 AM

Edit: I'd misread the title as "what if enigma hadn't been cracked" though that would have been even more dire for Britain since Germany could then feed them false intel, though the rest of my post applies in either case.

Enigma was cracked long before Pearl Harbour and the Americans became involved. In fact, ironically, for some months before Germany declared war on the US, the US had - despite its professed "neutral" position, had begun escorting allied shipping further and further into the Atlantic while extending a US "security zone" that went far beyond its territorial waters. The irony is that Churchill was able to pursuade Roosevelt to become more actively involved (but short of declaring war) based on intel that Hitler sought to avoid war with America at all costs. And that Intel came from a decoded enigma cipher.

The result was that America for several months, reassured by the knowledge that Hitler wanted no war with the US, became increasingly belligerent while clinging to a thinly disguised viel of neutrality. The belligerence went to the point of chasing down and attacking with depth charges at least one U-boat discovered in international waters near a convoy it was escorting within its "security zone".

So the more likely sceneraio is that, had enigma not been cracked Roosevelt would not have known that Germany wanted to avoid war with the US at all cost and would likely have displayed the same reluctance to become involved in a "European affair" that Americans wanted no part of that he'd displayed up until late in '41.

1941 was also when the Battle of the Atlantic was at its peak and Britain was most in danger of losing it. What helped turn the tide was intel on the position of German U-boats gained from Enigma and America's increasing involvement, which again the deciphered Enigma codes played a part in.

Without the break from Enigma being cracked its possible that America would have maintained the same firmly neutral position in '41 it had displayed up until then; that German convoy attacks would have been more successful while attrition from u-boat losses would have been lower and that Britain, being effectively cut off from needed goods, resources, and lines of communication with its colonies, and without US intervention, would have surrendered (probably conditionally which Germany would likely have accepted, being bogged down on the Eastern front at the same time).

Then with the European war decided, fascism on the rise, Roosevelt would have had 3 choices: cast his lot in with the Communists to try, finally, to put Hitler in check; Join the Axis in its fight against Communism; or lastly, simply adopt an isolationist stance and maintain the neutrality it had proclaimed all along. I think the last most likely.

03-18-06, 06:12 AM	#2
scandium Ace of the Deep Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,098 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	Edit: I'd misread the title as "what if enigma hadn't been cracked" though that would have been even more dire for Britain since Germany could then feed them false intel, though the rest of my post applies in either case. Enigma was cracked long before Pearl Harbour and the Americans became involved. In fact, ironically, for some months before Germany declared war on the US, the US had - despite its professed "neutral" position, had begun escorting allied shipping further and further into the Atlantic while extending a US "security zone" that went far beyond its territorial waters. The irony is that Churchill was able to pursuade Roosevelt to become more actively involved (but short of declaring war) based on intel that Hitler sought to avoid war with America at all costs. And that Intel came from a decoded enigma cipher. The result was that America for several months, reassured by the knowledge that Hitler wanted no war with the US, became increasingly belligerent while clinging to a thinly disguised viel of neutrality. The belligerence went to the point of chasing down and attacking with depth charges at least one U-boat discovered in international waters near a convoy it was escorting within its "security zone". So the more likely sceneraio is that, had enigma not been cracked Roosevelt would not have known that Germany wanted to avoid war with the US at all cost and would likely have displayed the same reluctance to become involved in a "European affair" that Americans wanted no part of that he'd displayed up until late in '41. 1941 was also when the Battle of the Atlantic was at its peak and Britain was most in danger of losing it. What helped turn the tide was intel on the position of German U-boats gained from Enigma and America's increasing involvement, which again the deciphered Enigma codes played a part in. Without the break from Enigma being cracked its possible that America would have maintained the same firmly neutral position in '41 it had displayed up until then; that German convoy attacks would have been more successful while attrition from u-boat losses would have been lower and that Britain, being effectively cut off from needed goods, resources, and lines of communication with its colonies, and without US intervention, would have surrendered (probably conditionally which Germany would likely have accepted, being bogged down on the Eastern front at the same time). Then with the European war decided, fascism on the rise, Roosevelt would have had 3 choices: cast his lot in with the Communists to try, finally, to put Hitler in check; Join the Axis in its fight against Communism; or lastly, simply adopt an isolationist stance and maintain the neutrality it had proclaimed all along. I think the last most likely.