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Oberon · 04-26-14, 04:15 PM

I think it's something that I wouldn't expand much thought into at this stage, neither Russia or NATO wants a war with each other, but equally neither side wants to be seen as weak in this situation.

Ukraine isn't really worth cracking out the nuclear weapons for, not in a regional basis, these days I doubt Russia would use them for anything except the defence of Russia itself, not including the little Oblasts like Crimea and the like. Likewise NATO would be loathe to use them unless Russia was knocking on the door of the Reichstag.

In my opinion, and admittedly I have been wrong in this crisis so far so even my best estimates I'm advising an unhealthy amount of salt be digested with, but I don't think Russia is actually going to act right now, they can sit back and wait, cool things off a bit perhaps if the economic sanctions are stinging them as much as the experts reckon they are, but continue to fund seperatists and stir unrest in the area. NATO will be loathe to bring the Ukraine on board, no matter what the Ice Queen of Kiev demands, and the EU will attempt to patch the holes in the sieve that is the Ukrainian economy. Then, when things have quietened down a bit and the world is looking elsewhere (maybe lil Kim will set off another nuke, so the world is watching him) then there will be a big uprising and Russia will move into eastern Ukraine.
Equally, they could go tomorrow, but in both scenarios they will probably stop at the Dnieper at the south and with a line reaching up to the north. They will not take Kiev, and they will leave the rest of Ukraine alone, they will have the economic heart of the Ukraine which is all they need in order to keep the Ukraine a nation greatly reduced in power and significance.
If and when they do this, NATO will probably sign an agreement with Ukraine to protect west Ukraine, and we will return to a Germany style East/West split, Skybird may even get his wall back, although I don't think the Ukrainian countryside will have the same characteristics of the Fulda Gap and the road to Hamburg.

We have been through worse than this and come out the other side, look at the Cuban Missile Crisis, if ever there was a time to be worried, that was it. Heck, we've even scraped through potential disasters that we never even knew about (coming back to the threads title) like Able Archer '83, the 1995 Norwegian rocket launch and the stand-off at Pristina airport during the Kosovan war.

So, wait and see what Russia does next, then we can react, worrying now is not really worth it, not yet.

04-26-14, 04:15 PM	#13
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	I think it's something that I wouldn't expand much thought into at this stage, neither Russia or NATO wants a war with each other, but equally neither side wants to be seen as weak in this situation. Ukraine isn't really worth cracking out the nuclear weapons for, not in a regional basis, these days I doubt Russia would use them for anything except the defence of Russia itself, not including the little Oblasts like Crimea and the like. Likewise NATO would be loathe to use them unless Russia was knocking on the door of the Reichstag. In my opinion, and admittedly I have been wrong in this crisis so far so even my best estimates I'm advising an unhealthy amount of salt be digested with, but I don't think Russia is actually going to act right now, they can sit back and wait, cool things off a bit perhaps if the economic sanctions are stinging them as much as the experts reckon they are, but continue to fund seperatists and stir unrest in the area. NATO will be loathe to bring the Ukraine on board, no matter what the Ice Queen of Kiev demands, and the EU will attempt to patch the holes in the sieve that is the Ukrainian economy. Then, when things have quietened down a bit and the world is looking elsewhere (maybe lil Kim will set off another nuke, so the world is watching him) then there will be a big uprising and Russia will move into eastern Ukraine. Equally, they could go tomorrow, but in both scenarios they will probably stop at the Dnieper at the south and with a line reaching up to the north. They will not take Kiev, and they will leave the rest of Ukraine alone, they will have the economic heart of the Ukraine which is all they need in order to keep the Ukraine a nation greatly reduced in power and significance. If and when they do this, NATO will probably sign an agreement with Ukraine to protect west Ukraine, and we will return to a Germany style East/West split, Skybird may even get his wall back, although I don't think the Ukrainian countryside will have the same characteristics of the Fulda Gap and the road to Hamburg. We have been through worse than this and come out the other side, look at the Cuban Missile Crisis, if ever there was a time to be worried, that was it. Heck, we've even scraped through potential disasters that we never even knew about (coming back to the threads title) like Able Archer '83, the 1995 Norwegian rocket launch and the stand-off at Pristina airport during the Kosovan war. So, wait and see what Russia does next, then we can react, worrying now is not really worth it, not yet.