Quote:
Originally Posted by Snarf
One can only imagine, the war with Japan probably would have been over by the end of '43 if we had perfectly functioning MK14's. Like TG626 said, it doesn't matter how many you have if they are not where you need them.
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While I agree, another issue for the US early on was a lack of subs in such a large theater. It wasn’t until late 1942 when sizable numbers of the Gato class were in the Pacific and the Balao class boats were sliding down the ways almost every week that the USN had enough boats to go out and really start doing a Rocky Marciano on the Japanese merchant marine. The less aggressive skippers would still have to be winnowed out as well.
So, until late 1942 the strategic picture would not dramatically change. Sure enough, there would be additional sinkings. There were some really good skippers out there in the early days like Chester Smith, Joe Grenfell, Lew Parks, and “Moon” Chapple who would have come home with the broom lashed to the periscope, signaling a clean sweep. USS Nautilus would have certainly sunk the Kaga at Midway instead of denting her with a dud and may have very well dispatched the Kirishima too. If enough tankers and freighters could have been sunk in the right places, Japanese tactics in the Solomons could have been disrupted as well.
Starting in late 1942 however (approximately 9-10 months earlier than the real event, the maru slaughter would have begun. The lack of tankers and the fuel they transport would have serious implications for the Japanese responses to the Philippines and the Marianas operations. I would estimate that by January, 1945 at the latest the entire Japanese economy, their industry, and their war making potential would have come to a complete standstill, idled by a universal lack of fuel, spare parts, food, and other essentials brought on by the utter destruction of the Japanese merchant marine and that could very well have ended the war right there.