I have a different perspective. I've been there using the vanilla game and the NYGM mod. In both instances I encountered merchant traffic. I don't remember the year ... maybe 1942 or 1943 ... but on one of the trips, I took out two large tankers off the south-west coast of Cuba before I entered the gulf. I then sunk another tanker within the gulf. It was a fairly productive patrol. If you're patient and use your hydrophne, you will encounter merchants in the gulf.
But it's a hell of a long trip ... even with 1024x time compression.
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