I do remember a time where I had much the same thing happen,tracking a target at periscope depth,in good firing position,at night moonlit skies,same as yourself very careful with the scope and damn me he started evading at about 3000-4000yds (did reload a few times but same thing happened every time) I can't remember what mods I was running at the time but in the end I just left him to it and sailed away so never found out the hows or whys of that encounter but it certainly didn't happen regularly in the campaign.
Sorry I couldn't be of more help,hopefully some of our more savvy bretheren will stop by and shed some light on it.
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