[Skybird]

Putin does not care for his prestige in the West, not one bit. Nor does he trust the West. Before he came to powers, and Yeltzin ruled, he witnessed for too long how the West cheated and betrayed Russia and broke agreements and promises as if they meant nothing. He never will trust the West again.

Any Western assumption grounding on that Putin considers how the West his perceiving what he does, personally, must lead to misled and irrelevant expectations, therefore. He will do what he can do, and not care for his prestige in the West at all.

That's why I must smile often these days when I listen to Western diplomats.

With roughly 30%, Russia still is Europe's biggest provider of gas (before Algeria, I think). A big share of transports have been relocated from transfer pipes in the Ukraine, to pipes in the Baltic.

I assume the Ukraine leaders now cry over the day when they gave away their huge stockpiles of nuclear weapons for nothing more than lip-serviced security guarantees from Russia and the West alike.

One should differ between a Russian military claim for all of Ukraine, or just the Crimean peninsula. While the first is not to be accepted, in case of the latter one has to realise the high priority interests that region has for Russia, it is of vital interest. Western politicians once again seem to expect their opponents acting stupid and self-damaging. They always seem to demand that. It seems to me that Putin has no intention to comply with that demand.

In chess, it is stupid to base one's own plan on the weakness of the opponent. Instead you calculate your plan on basis of the strongest moves you can see to be available to him. It's no cooperative game, and good will has no room in it. In the end, not even bluffing. You cannot bluff against better calculation by the other.