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If Weserübung had not happened - would you have believed it could? The Germans were not teleported there.
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If France, Holland and Belgium (Luxembourg, too.. ..) had not been invaded and beaten in little more than a month - inclusive of the British Expeditionary Force - would you have believed it could?
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The germans had a good army, a good air force and a willingness to make very risky bets, they had beaten France in 1870 and made to the gates of Paris in 1914. So surprising yes, but still an outcome very much in the cards.
That said land and air forces could make up for a lot, but not the lack of a proper navy. Even with luck on their side Norway still crippled the Kriegsmarine surface forces and in the event the geography for the Luftwaffe was a lot more favorable than, say for an attempt on Ireland. Note also that France fell in the meantime and Britain had to be defended, if not the campagn might have lasted longer and naval losses could have been greater still.
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Hitler did not invade England when he should have
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The basic condition was air supremacy, which was never achieved, to say nothing of the rest. And if the USSR was to be tackled, and it was the whole point of the war, 1941 was the year to do it.