Quote:
Originally Posted by Platapus
It would have had little effect.
But other than that, I don't see how history would have been changed.
Now if the scenario were changed to "what if the US carriers found the Japanese carriers before the attack" That might be interesting.
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If the US carriers then at sea had been in position to attack then it would be a toss up. If the Japanese spotted the American carriers then just as at Midway, they would be faced with the tactical dilemma of dealing with a carrier task force and a significant land based air contingent. As they found out at Midway, there is no easy solution to that. In addition, assuming the Japanese search doctrine was just as weak six months prior to Midway as it was at Midway, there is always the chance that the Americans would launch the first strike. Given what we now know about Japanese AA ability, fighter vectoring, ship design and doctrine, a two or three carrier American strike-even if poorly coordinated would have had a very good chance of hurting the Japanese fleet. Even a mutual strike might have been significant for the Allies given Japanese damage control and the fact that any damaged Japanese carrier would have been very far away from a suitable port of refuge.
Japan did have six carriers with highly trained crews and pilots but the fact remains that in air to air carrier combat, each side was totally inexperienced with no precedent to guide them. Just about anything could have happened.