[TorpX]

For all who suffered.

Originally Posted by Oberon

A year or two at most I would wager, likewise any attack on the oil and repair facilities in a third wave (although any advantages of having destroyed the oil and repair facilities in a third wave would have been offset by the heavy loss of aircraft and experienced pilots now that the AAA crews were wide awake and very angry). Although to be honest, even if the flat-tops had been in Pearl, it's questionable how much priority would have been placed on them over the battleships by the Japanese Naval Command, since at that time it was believed that any major battle between the USN and IJN would be between battleships and the carrier and aircraft would play a secondary supportive role.

I disagree completely. First, it doesn't matter what the Japanese Naval Command thought, Yamamoto was in command, and he knew better. I have no doubt but that if our carriers had been within his grasp, he would have hit them. They had the muscle to hit both the battleships and the carriers.

As Dread Knot pointed out, the vulnerability of POL targets isn't nearly as great as people imagine them to be. US efforts to damage Ploesti demonstrated that. Besides, if you could sink both the battleships and the carriers, it almost doesn't matter about the fuel tanks. The fuel tanks could be replaced in much less time than the BB's and CV's.

If they had sunk the aircraft carriers, the US would be forced to adopt an ineffective defensive strategy until the Essex class was up and running. The KB would be able to run wild, unopposed, for all practical purposes. Even after 1943, with 3 or 4 Essex-class ready, they would still be facing an undiminished, fully effective and confident IJN. The Essex air groups would be inexperienced and at best, "almost as good" as the opposition. And if the next big battle goes in Japan's favor, what then? The mind boggles. At some point people would want to cut their losses. No nation has the resources to sacrifice ships and sailors by the bunch, indefinitely, without blinking. It might have come down to a choice of abandoning the Pacific to continue the war in Europe, or maybe vice-versa.