Quote:
Originally Posted by Dread Knot
Regarding a third wave, there really wasn't anything in the Japanese carrier fleet's onboard ammo inventory sufficient to destroy the oil tanks at Pearl. First of all, there weren't merely a couple of them, but rather about forty of them. Each was a double-walled tank surrounded by its own individual 16-foot high berm. The catchment for each berm was sufficient to hold all the fuel in each tank in the event of a total rupture. So the idea of starting some conflagration that would spread from tank to tank with chains of pyrotechnics (like we see in the movies) is a complete non-starter. The Japanese would have to hit each tank. Kates would not have been very useful for the job because they were about as accurate at level bombing as a badly-flown B-17. Vals as a dive bomber more useful.
The other problem is that starting the tanks on fire and destroying the fuel was the sort of thing that would require several hits. A couple of high explosive hits to sufficiently rupture the fuel tank. Some incendiaries to start it burning. The contents of those tanks would be almost impossible to alight using HE. At usual atmospheric temperature, bunker oil has the consistency of thick caramel, and the burnability of wet wood. Each of those tanks had their own coil heater to make the fuel pumpable because of the viscosity. Each also had its own irrigation system, so getting it alight and getting it to stay alight would have been problematic.
Could the Japanese have done it? IMO, with a careful prior study of the problem, the right mix of ordnance (most of which Japanese never carried operationally) and singular dedication to that ONE purpose, they might have been able to destroy half the fuel in the PH Pacific Fleet fuel reserve.
And as you noted, elite Japanese pilot losses would start to bite for little return.
Of course I've always found the "missed Japanese opportunity to destroy the base" at Pearl something of a myth. 
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I would concur, Nagumo made the right decision. I tried wargaming a third wave once back when we were playing 'A World At War' (
http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/forumdisplay.php?f=233) it netted me a couple of more battleships but ultimately hurt me more through the loss of the pilots than it hurt Raptor who was able to salvage a good portion of the ships I hit.
Von Gerlach, massive respect to your cousin and to yourself, for although you lost a relative on that fateful day, you (unlike many who were never even born at the time) do not hold a grudge against the nation who conducted the act. I salute you for this.