[Skybird]

The Taiwan issue sooner or later will reach a state where it is not the question anymore what the US wants, but what it actually can. And the "can" is is constant decline.

China quickly approaches a status where it can send shockwaves around the global economy and fiscal system huge enough that they would paralyse Western nations and take them out of the equation.

It also has one big advantage, amongst several others. Agriculturally, it is autark - no probability for hunger revolts. And since Taiwan is an issue of utmost value for Chinese nationalism and national pride, the people hardly would go on the streets over any invasion of Taiwan. At least not in China.

Oberon, China looses billions every month over the Chinese engagement in irresponsible American fiscal policies. It is foolish that while they grow stronger and stronger thy would continue to agree to the need that they must stabilise and refinance the Western follies endlessly. They have sent so many signals in past years that clearly indicate that they have no intention to do so and that they will abandon the Dollar and even the Euro sooner or later. They will not do it, nor will they leave Taiwan to itself forever.

However, I assume that they would prefer a peaceful, though blackmailed reunification of Taiwan with the motherland to any military action. But they are working on the military solution as well, and I think they are within ten years to solving the equation.

Then it will be tough decisions for Taiwan and the US - a US that is financially tumbling already (and I do not refer to the current hokuspokus in Washington only, which is only a minor symptom: the whole system is sick and deeply rotten). A fiscal system like this cannot survive forever. It is a fiscal system founded by and on the grounds of ever-growing debts, and is a fiscal system that in principle doe snot even know what real money really is.

It is a double strategy Bejing follows to push the US out of the game. Militarily - AND fiscally. Washington thinks its remedy and primary defence is the debt-bond-printer and taking the whole global economy hostage. And that is a wrong calculation. The Chinese will not obey to that irresponsible insanity forever.

Keep your strength, and grow stronger - but hide your strength.

Since I see the destruction of the current fiscal system as inevitable anyway, I welcome any successful attempt to help accelerating the process, even if it is a most painful one. America has had its chance regarding fiscal responsibility, since decades - and it failed to honour it. The Europeans have messed up as well. Now its time for the next contender to try. Hopefully he has learned from our mistakes.