Quote:
Originally Posted by mapuc
Heard this once in a TV-Seminars on a danish TV-Channel(can't remember when)
it was about the economical development in that area.
If I recall it correctly on of the spectators asked if or when China will retake Taiwan.
the economist said: the day USA has a liabilities, so big towards China, that they can't pay the bill not even the interest. Then China could send some kind of Payment reminder
Then he said a lot more, which I can't remember.
I do remember thinking loud-They can send as many Payment reminder they want and they can demand Taiwan for this debt instead. USA has some kind of treaty with Taiwan and any attempt on invading Taiwan...welll
I could be wrong.
Markus
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I don't know, it's partially feasible, China has just as much to lose from America defaulting on its debt as it does from retaking Taiwan by force in terms of finances. I can't see America giving up Taiwan though, it would send a very bad signal to its Pacific allies, particularly Japan, that it is willing to sell out, and that would be suicide for the US in the Pacific.
In regards to China taking Taiwan as a debt reminder, that's not feasible, it's too rash for Beijing who don't tend to make rash decisions, and there's too much collateral damage for China to risk it.
After 2020 though, given the US decline, the situation could change, certainly we're going to see a more militarily resurgent Japan, and Australia is going to have to step up more to deal with local flare-ups, and nations like Vietnam and the Phillipines are going to become a lot more important in the affairs of the Pacific. In a post-America world it will take a while for a new dominant power to emerge, and in that time there's going to be a devolution of security responsibility to regional powers, as there has been in Europe after the fall of the Berlin wall. I just hope the regional powers are ready for that responsibility...
