SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - View Single Post - China has a foot in the door of NATO's internal defence market

Oberon · 10-16-13, 11:34 AM

Last I recall, the estimated time for China to be in a position to retake Taiwan was about 2016-18, this gives them time to get a couple more carriers in place and some more carrier killer weaponry in position.
The biggest stumbling block for any cross-straits war though is the economy, we all know how delicate the Chinese economy is, its success is the only thing keeping China together at the moment because the difference between conditions in the coastal cities of the PRC and the internal countryside villages and towns are so extreme that really the only comparison that can be made is with the UK in the early Victorian era when the Industrial Revolution drew people out from the countryside and into the cities, but while this happened over the space of five or six decades in the UK, it's happened in less than two in China, and as such it's built a house of cards which any major incident can knock it all down. In order for that economy to be made stable, China needs to reduce that gap between the coast and the countryside, increasing internal demand for Chinese goods and reducing the need for foreign trade and reliance on foreign currency.
On that note, Taiwan is one of Chinas biggest trade partners, and unless the PRC is able to take Taiwan without firing a shot which is incredibly unlikely, any war will massively damage that trade, as well as damaging the Taiwanese economy, thus making the PRC have to clean up the mess it makes if and when it takes the islands (since there are also other smaller islands other than Taiwan in question here) and this is a burden that the PRC in its current state cannot afford to undertake, however make no mistake that within the next six years this may well change, and certainly Beijing will want to have itself in a position where it has the option available. In the immediate term, unless a hardline communist coup takes place (the likelihood of which has decreased now that Bo Xilai has been locked up) then Taiwan will likely not evolve beyond the odd tense exchange in this decade, likewise the disagreements with Japan over the Senkaku islands.

10-16-13, 11:34 AM	#2
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	Last I recall, the estimated time for China to be in a position to retake Taiwan was about 2016-18, this gives them time to get a couple more carriers in place and some more carrier killer weaponry in position. The biggest stumbling block for any cross-straits war though is the economy, we all know how delicate the Chinese economy is, its success is the only thing keeping China together at the moment because the difference between conditions in the coastal cities of the PRC and the internal countryside villages and towns are so extreme that really the only comparison that can be made is with the UK in the early Victorian era when the Industrial Revolution drew people out from the countryside and into the cities, but while this happened over the space of five or six decades in the UK, it's happened in less than two in China, and as such it's built a house of cards which any major incident can knock it all down. In order for that economy to be made stable, China needs to reduce that gap between the coast and the countryside, increasing internal demand for Chinese goods and reducing the need for foreign trade and reliance on foreign currency. On that note, Taiwan is one of Chinas biggest trade partners, and unless the PRC is able to take Taiwan without firing a shot which is incredibly unlikely, any war will massively damage that trade, as well as damaging the Taiwanese economy, thus making the PRC have to clean up the mess it makes if and when it takes the islands (since there are also other smaller islands other than Taiwan in question here) and this is a burden that the PRC in its current state cannot afford to undertake, however make no mistake that within the next six years this may well change, and certainly Beijing will want to have itself in a position where it has the option available. In the immediate term, unless a hardline communist coup takes place (the likelihood of which has decreased now that Bo Xilai has been locked up) then Taiwan will likely not evolve beyond the odd tense exchange in this decade, likewise the disagreements with Japan over the Senkaku islands.