Here's a question - would playing a game in fullscreen put enough additional stress on the hardware to cause a crash, when playing windowed does not? Because if the answer is no, then I would think it's more likely to be software related, specifically some setting or file that is causing the fullscreen mode to crap out.
Altho I didn't change anything prior to this problem starting, so I can't imagine what file or setting that would be. Unless Windows did an automatic update that screwed up something somewhere, but I couldn't find anything that looked suspicious in that area.