SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - View Single Post - Syria conflict: 'Chemical attacks kill hundreds'

Oberon · 08-27-13, 07:31 PM

Whoa...Whoa...Whoa...

People are getting a bit excited around here, like it's The Day After or something. Calm down a bit folks!
For one thing, oil hasn't been below $100bbl for a few months now, look:

(http://www.infomine.com/investment/m...de-oil/1-year/ in case the picture doesn't show)

It spiked in January, probably because of the Mali situation and the spillover into Algeria, came down a bit and just dipped below 100 in April, but then when Egypt started up again and Syria has gotten worse it's creeping back up again. The highest the prices have gone so far has been $146, so we've still got a way to go, and when that happened in 2008 the world did not end.
Syria puts out at most 20k bbl/day, OPEC has been upping their quota (producing the most in seven months back in May) so that any shortfall from Syria is covered by the other Gulf states. Yes, Syria is in a rather strategic location in regards to oil access, however since Syria has not been particularly friendly to western interests, most of the infrastructure has yet to be built.
That is not to say that there will not be problems ahead, there are a million and one things that could go wrong in the coming weeks, many of them dependent on what Russia does in response, what happens to the Suez Canal and whether Assad is crazy enough to launch on Israel.
I can't see Iran actually stepping up to the plate for Syria, they have too much to lose, I can't see their new leader being in favour of it, but as we all know with Iran it's what the Ayatollah says that matters, so they might just do something but it would surprise me.
I also don't see the UK doing anything until next week at the earliest, the US might go first if Obama wants to skip congress and the UN report, it would be a stupid thing to do, but painting himself into a corner like he has done is also a stupid thing to do. Parliament is going to have a chin wag about it on Thursday, I hope that it's an open session because it should be quite interesting to watch. Hopefully some of our MPs have learnt since the Iraq war, although I see old Tony Blair is in support of an attack on Syria...no real surprises there, if anything the fact that Blair has put his support behind the attack should be a clear example of why we shouldn't do anything!

I also can't see the military involvement being any more than a few TLAMs on certain targets, and maybe the B2s might get a chance to play...heck, if the US is feeling risky it might even take the golden bird into combat (F-22) but anything that doesn't have the RCS of a gnat (and not the Folland kind) will stay firmly on the ground until the SAM sites have been nailed.

I can't see Russia getting militarily involved but they will definitely respond in some manner, most likely economically or diplomatically. They might turn the pipes into Europe off again, not that that does much to the US but it'd certainly screw up things over here, and might well just domino into the US markets.

At times like this though, I always think of that ancient Chinese curse, 'May you live in interesting times', and these sure are interesting...but we're not quite in doomsday territory yet.

Yet.

08-27-13, 07:31 PM	#5
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	Whoa...Whoa...Whoa... People are getting a bit excited around here, like it's The Day After or something. Calm down a bit folks! For one thing, oil hasn't been below $100bbl for a few months now, look: (http://www.infomine.com/investment/m...de-oil/1-year/ in case the picture doesn't show) It spiked in January, probably because of the Mali situation and the spillover into Algeria, came down a bit and just dipped below 100 in April, but then when Egypt started up again and Syria has gotten worse it's creeping back up again. The highest the prices have gone so far has been $146, so we've still got a way to go, and when that happened in 2008 the world did not end. Syria puts out at most 20k bbl/day, OPEC has been upping their quota (producing the most in seven months back in May) so that any shortfall from Syria is covered by the other Gulf states. Yes, Syria is in a rather strategic location in regards to oil access, however since Syria has not been particularly friendly to western interests, most of the infrastructure has yet to be built. That is not to say that there will not be problems ahead, there are a million and one things that could go wrong in the coming weeks, many of them dependent on what Russia does in response, what happens to the Suez Canal and whether Assad is crazy enough to launch on Israel. I can't see Iran actually stepping up to the plate for Syria, they have too much to lose, I can't see their new leader being in favour of it, but as we all know with Iran it's what the Ayatollah says that matters, so they might just do something but it would surprise me. I also don't see the UK doing anything until next week at the earliest, the US might go first if Obama wants to skip congress and the UN report, it would be a stupid thing to do, but painting himself into a corner like he has done is also a stupid thing to do. Parliament is going to have a chin wag about it on Thursday, I hope that it's an open session because it should be quite interesting to watch. Hopefully some of our MPs have learnt since the Iraq war, although I see old Tony Blair is in support of an attack on Syria...no real surprises there, if anything the fact that Blair has put his support behind the attack should be a clear example of why we shouldn't do anything! I also can't see the military involvement being any more than a few TLAMs on certain targets, and maybe the B2s might get a chance to play...heck, if the US is feeling risky it might even take the golden bird into combat (F-22) but anything that doesn't have the RCS of a gnat (and not the Folland kind) will stay firmly on the ground until the SAM sites have been nailed. I can't see Russia getting militarily involved but they will definitely respond in some manner, most likely economically or diplomatically. They might turn the pipes into Europe off again, not that that does much to the US but it'd certainly screw up things over here, and might well just domino into the US markets. At times like this though, I always think of that ancient Chinese curse, 'May you live in interesting times', and these sure are interesting...but we're not quite in doomsday territory yet. Yet.