Quote:
Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat
Not that clear to me. The Kurds had been in more or less open rebellion since the 60s and by 2003 had a de facto autonomy.
The sectarian conflict between Shias and Sunnis is a more recent development. It was pretty much unknown in 2003.
You look at the Middle East after 1945 and you see that for a long time it was shaped pretty much only by the Arab-Israel conflict and the Cold War.
Lebanon was in a civil war for most of the 70s and 80s. Both Shias and Sunnis had their own militias, but they were informal allies. The conflicts were: christians vs muslims, lebanese vs Syria, lebanese vs Israel so the muslim militias were usually fighting on the same side.
In Iraq, both Shias and Sunnis got along, the Baghdad neighborhoods were mixed and there was freqent intermarriages. During the Iran-Iraq War, most Iraqi Shias supported Iraq.
Even the Shia uprising in 1991 was perceived as an uprising against Saddam Hussein rather than a Shia-Sunni struggle.
Anyway, one thing for sure, it will be a long time before the US ever puts ground troops in the ME again. It gives a whole new meaning to the old dictum: "Dont start a land war in Asia".  |
De facto autonomy?
How much land were they claiming which was way beyond that de facto holding?
What is the only logical process for them pushing into that claim with the armed overthrow of the regime that holds it?
If you can come up with any logical answer apart from "civil war" then you may have a point.
You later come back to the Shia which you initially wrote off as "unknown", Steelhead has already dealt with that.
On Lebanon I am afraid you are very incorrect, in that long running mess just about every group has been allied with every other group and been at war with every other group.
It has been an ever shifting mess which never really shifts very far.
If you look at the mid east post-45 you will see religious tribal ideological national conflicts both linked to and seperate from the cold war and Isreali/arab issues.
If you look pre-45 you will see more of the history of these long running problems
As for not putting ground troops in again, do you really have that much faith in your politicians so as to believe they will not make the same mistakes they have already made time and time again?