[Skybird]

There is a lot of reporting currently about the changing energy situation in the US, with the US apparently turning from a depending oil-importer to maybe the world biggest or second-biggest oil exporter in the forseeable future, due to fracking, shale gas and all that (wouldn't have imagined a couple of years ago that this thing advances at such an explosive speed, I definitely underestimated that). After a desillusionising decade with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan having gone wrong and the Arab Spring having turned into a new Islamic winter, I think there is substantial reason to assume that the energy factor will change the American focus in foreign politics and maybe make the US a bit more isolationistic indeed, less eager to get the hot potatoes out of other people's fire, and less willing to military engage itself where the Europeans just sit on their bottoms, especially Germany. I think that the Us could lose interest in the Gold region, it already has lost interest in Europe, and to what degree it will change America's attitude in the Pacific remains to be seen. But being less dependent on foreign energy, will have an effect for sure, leaving international money flow-patterns and trade patterns as the only decisive factors to form foreign policy. Because one dependency the Us will not overcome: the dependence of foreign money flowing into the America debt market. Since all nations currently devalue their currencies to get rid of some debts by expropriating the private sector, the outcome and ultimate effect of this currency war is hard to predict. But it is the next war that will be fought, the prelude is already running. And I think that threat is more dangerous for Australia than a nuke threat by China.