Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird
The Chinese will retaliate.
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Why would they do so?
Assad is Russias ally, not Chinas. China has no strategic interests in the region, they have no reason to retaliate. China only backs Assad in the UN because Russia is doing so, and if Assad uses chemical weapons then he loses his viability as an ally, he becomes expendable. So he will probably find himself couped by his own generals while Russia and NATO make preparations to actively get involved in Syria. Then Russia will lean on the generals to make a couple of small concessions and present them to the world as people who the UN can do business with, and we'll be back to square one.
I would be more concerned with China retaliating over Iran, personally, if the US goes into Iran. Iran is a good source of oil for China, and if that supply is threatened then China will consider herself threatened and may seek retaliation. However, economic retaliation is a double edged sword for China, it is easier and better for the PRC to threaten retaliation than actually to do it, because if the US economy falls apart then the PRC will collapse shortly afterwards since their economies are very linked at the moment, a problem that Beijing is seeking desperately to fix before the American public realise it.
EDIT: A short research later and I've found that the PRC is a major player in Syrias oil industry, so there's a small chance of retaliation, but when you compare Syria and Irans outputs, there's quite a difference, and traditionally and strategically, Russia is more linked to Syria than the PRC. If you get Russia on board then the PRC will not offer any real complaints. Of course, if you get Russia on board then a lot of Assads staff will 'escape' and find housing, probably in China or another Russian ally. Assad himself though will probably be used as a sacrificial pawn, if he is dumb enough to use chemical weapons in a war that the world is focused on, and against the world opinion, then he is no longer a usable ally of Russia and will be discarded.