[nikimcbee]

Originally Posted by Oberon

This is true, the last estimate I saw had their military capable of hitting Taiwan by about 2018, however I reckon they'll wait until at least 2020 before they do anything...IF they do anything.
As it stands, right now, they benefit more from peace than they do from war, and as long as that remains the case then China will not conduct nor provoke any major military confrontation.
Taiwan, as it stands, is one of the PRCs major trading partners, and it's own military is no slouch. Politically it's a mess, and on its own it wouldn't be able to resist the PRC steamroller for more than a month. However, its infrastructure and industries would be ruined and it would cost the PRC many millions or billions to get Taiwan up and running again, therefore it would be a loss for the PRC in the long run. A major propaganda victory to take the last strongholds of the KMT, but there would be a government in exile set up somewhere which would continue to promote the goals of the KMT so it would be a bit of a bust politically. Plus there's the possibility of an underground resistance movement sparking off troubles in the rural parts of China or through the more liberal youth of the cities.

What the PRC would like the most is if Taiwan would become a Special Administrative or Autonomous Zone like Hong Kong and Macau. That would keep the lucrative trade, prevent conflict and reduce the likelihood of a civilian uprising. So it's likely that any large military would be used to lean heavily on Taiwan to do this as the 'best option for both of us'.

Of course, for this strategy to work, they have to either push the US out of the way of the Taiwan straits, or have enough military force available to counter-act it. The hope is to be able to achieve all this without firing a shot, after all, as Sun Tzu said, 'To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.'

However, in places like the Spratleys and Vietnam, that's another matter entirely, I could see limited military force being used to achieve Chinese goals in these areas.

Do you think once the "old guard" dies off, that they'll lose interest in Taking Taiwan by force? I agree 100% with you regarding the economic issues. The risk/reward seems to be too expensive. That's a lot of money to spend to have you're flag flying over them.