SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - View Single Post - This is claimed to be Israel's (no longer) secret war plan

Oberon · 08-16-12, 02:25 PM

We have a saying, I imagine it's translated in German at some point, "If wishes were horses, beggars would ride."
You and I both know that the western world does not think in a straight way, it convolutes the matter, when you say that I make it complicated, it's not me, it is my observation of the way the western world works.
Israel will attack, like you say it has no real choice but to do so, but it will do so alone because the US cannot afford a war with Iran at the moment, not in terms of finances, although that is certainly a factor, but in terms of international standing and internal political problems.
The EU couldn't organise a bread fight in a bakery so they're out of the question, so that leaves little Israel in it alone.

By acting alone and striking first they hand the political prize to Iran, the US wouldn't be able to applaud Israel publically because they'd be seen as endorsing a first strike scenario (which opens up a can of worms in terms of China hitting Taiwan and Russia hitting...well...any of its neighbours that aren't NATO members) and they would be forced both internally and externally to reduce aid to Israel as 'punishment'.

You and I both know that this is how the world of today works, Skybird, we both don't agree on it, but we have to be realistic here, and face the fact that Iran is in the strong position here and will remain so for the near future. Short of turning the entirety of Iran into glass and vaporising its entire population, Israel is not going to win this, not in the long term. It might delay that gun coming around, but it's not going to disarm it.

There are plenty of options but each option is unpalatable to a particular faction involved in this entire event:

1) Do nothing - Iran gets the bomb, and a Middle Eastern arms race begins
2) Put anti-missile defences around Iran, fence it in so that any nuclear weapons it does have cannot be launched via missile - So a suitcase bomb explodes in Tel Aviv instead.
3) Israel attacks Iran alone - Irans nuclear program set back by five years to a decade, Israel receives a massive retaliatory strike but is otherwise unharmed. However its international reputation is down the gutter and the US is forced to reduce aid, thus making its position harder and Iran gets extra support for its rebuilding program from Russia and China.
4) Israel and the US attack Iran - Irans program set back by ten years to twenty, the retaliatory strike is greatly reduced but the US and Israel both become international pariahs and Iran gets extra support for its rebuilding program from Russia and China. There is a potential for UN sanctions against Iran to be overturned.
5) The US turns Iran into a giant mirror - Irans nuclear program no longer exists, and neither does Iran. The entire world reacts in outrage, the US becomes isolated, sanctioned and embargoed to the hilt. Its economy falls into ruins and Israel is overrun by its neighbours.
6) Israel stages an Iranian attack on Israel as a cassus belli - Irans nuclear program set back by five to ten years, Russia and China protest overuse of force in retaliation. World suspects a fraud but struggles to prove it. Opinion split on either it was really an Iranian attack or an Israeli fraud.
7) The US and Israel stage an Iranian attack on Israel as a cassus belli - Same as above only there's either a slightly higher or lower chance of the fraud being discovered depending on how much credibility you give the CIA.
8) Israel waits until Iran uses a nuclear weapon first, then uses world opinion to remove the nuclear program from Iran - Israel loses 400,000 people, Iran loses active support from Russia and China and then loses a lot of other things as Israel and the US bomb it back to the stone age, with global support. It's unlikely that Iran will have a nuclear program any time soon after this. A pyrrhic victory for Iran, but it would not stop them from conducting it.

Pick your poison.

08-16-12, 02:25 PM	#7
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	We have a saying, I imagine it's translated in German at some point, "If wishes were horses, beggars would ride." You and I both know that the western world does not think in a straight way, it convolutes the matter, when you say that I make it complicated, it's not me, it is my observation of the way the western world works. Israel will attack, like you say it has no real choice but to do so, but it will do so alone because the US cannot afford a war with Iran at the moment, not in terms of finances, although that is certainly a factor, but in terms of international standing and internal political problems. The EU couldn't organise a bread fight in a bakery so they're out of the question, so that leaves little Israel in it alone. By acting alone and striking first they hand the political prize to Iran, the US wouldn't be able to applaud Israel publically because they'd be seen as endorsing a first strike scenario (which opens up a can of worms in terms of China hitting Taiwan and Russia hitting...well...any of its neighbours that aren't NATO members) and they would be forced both internally and externally to reduce aid to Israel as 'punishment'. You and I both know that this is how the world of today works, Skybird, we both don't agree on it, but we have to be realistic here, and face the fact that Iran is in the strong position here and will remain so for the near future. Short of turning the entirety of Iran into glass and vaporising its entire population, Israel is not going to win this, not in the long term. It might delay that gun coming around, but it's not going to disarm it. There are plenty of options but each option is unpalatable to a particular faction involved in this entire event: 1) Do nothing - Iran gets the bomb, and a Middle Eastern arms race begins 2) Put anti-missile defences around Iran, fence it in so that any nuclear weapons it does have cannot be launched via missile - So a suitcase bomb explodes in Tel Aviv instead. 3) Israel attacks Iran alone - Irans nuclear program set back by five years to a decade, Israel receives a massive retaliatory strike but is otherwise unharmed. However its international reputation is down the gutter and the US is forced to reduce aid, thus making its position harder and Iran gets extra support for its rebuilding program from Russia and China. 4) Israel and the US attack Iran - Irans program set back by ten years to twenty, the retaliatory strike is greatly reduced but the US and Israel both become international pariahs and Iran gets extra support for its rebuilding program from Russia and China. There is a potential for UN sanctions against Iran to be overturned. 5) The US turns Iran into a giant mirror - Irans nuclear program no longer exists, and neither does Iran. The entire world reacts in outrage, the US becomes isolated, sanctioned and embargoed to the hilt. Its economy falls into ruins and Israel is overrun by its neighbours. 6) Israel stages an Iranian attack on Israel as a cassus belli - Irans nuclear program set back by five to ten years, Russia and China protest overuse of force in retaliation. World suspects a fraud but struggles to prove it. Opinion split on either it was really an Iranian attack or an Israeli fraud. 7) The US and Israel stage an Iranian attack on Israel as a cassus belli - Same as above only there's either a slightly higher or lower chance of the fraud being discovered depending on how much credibility you give the CIA. 8) Israel waits until Iran uses a nuclear weapon first, then uses world opinion to remove the nuclear program from Iran - Israel loses 400,000 people, Iran loses active support from Russia and China and then loses a lot of other things as Israel and the US bomb it back to the stone age, with global support. It's unlikely that Iran will have a nuclear program any time soon after this. A pyrrhic victory for Iran, but it would not stop them from conducting it. Pick your poison.