The argument the Poms have in their favour is that their law can override their compliance with the Vienna convention. The issue is that the argument will always take place after the fact by which time Assange is banged up and on his way to Sweden. Ecuador can cry all they want in The Hague, but that argument will take a long time and Assange's arrest and extradition will have been long gone by the time it is finished.
And what would the likely result be? Ecuador and Britain dissolve diplomatic relations for a while and then in a few years patch things over and forget it ever happened. Britain may get stung with a damages bill, but the appeals on that would take years as well. Right or wrong the UK law gives them the ability to do what they want within their own borders, including walking into the Ecuadorian embassy with a weeks notice.
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