Well, two important topics in here
1.- The Middle East & Oil: Yes, the ME is nowadays more or less important because of oil, but historically it has been a source of trouble because of many other reasons. If anyone still believes here that the Crusades were done with the purpose of "liberating" Jerusalem, then let me remind you that the area was right in the path of the most important commercial route of the ancient times, linking Asia & Europe (Remember Marco Polo?)
Then some centuries after that the Suez channel and surrounding areas became a matter of national security for the brits, as the wealth flowing from India went nearby....and now it's oil
No, there will not be any difference for ME conflict when oil runs out. There will sure be another reason to keep fighting over there, be sure...
2.- The end of the oil era: I already opened a topic here some time ago about "Peak Oil"...we are facing serious trouble in the next years, and sure as hell there will be conflicts and violence will raise. No this will not be the end of human beings, and there are alternatives (Coal, Tar Sands, Nuclear...) but it is sure that there will be a heavy crisis that forces adaptment
Quote:
problem is not wether the world will be more stable with or without oil dependance (no matter which countries have the stuff)
it's what the heck happens as we make the transition--
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You did hit the nail again Chris
While Tar Sands, nuclear reactors, etc. are developed enough to keep the "sustained growth into infinite" our system needs, there will be a BIG crisis, probably as bad as the one in 1929. Sure it will not be the end, and sure we will sooner or later restart a period of wellfare when solutions are found (6000 million people thinking about how to solve a problem is a good guarantee that someone will come up with a good idea
), but you can bet you neck in that a BIG crisis will come in the next 10 years
I would like to quote something I readed in a "Peak Oil" web some time ago: "Predictions about the future of humankind can be divided in two classes: Those who see a future like Starwars, or those who see a future like Mad Max the Road Warrior"
:hmm: