Quote:
Originally Posted by the_tyrant
I have to pitch in here:
China and Iran is fundamentally ideologically incompatible.
No problems with China, after all, China is "Communist" while its economical policies are more capitalist than actual "Capitalist" countries. Chinese people know and accept (or even like) this doublespeak.
Iran however, might very well object to the Chinese Ideology. Or as I will quote here: "The people have not been raped enough by the 'ideologies' to learn to enjoy the lies and hypocracy."
Why would this prove to be a problem?
Islam and communism has always had conflicts. Now in the Chinese textbooks, Islams is being attacked from all angles. Theocracies like Iran are being portrayed as "Backward" and "Ridiculous".
Add the new Chinese anti religion campaign, and I can just see the conflict sparking here.
Chinese people know that it is just talk, it is just for the government to save face. The amount of religious Chinese people increase with every passing day, and as long as the religious organizations do not cause trouble, the government never does anything.
Now the thing is, Iran is a heavily ideologically motivated nation. I doubt they would turn a blind eye and ignore this. Even if their secular leadership is willing to, their religious leadership is probably not willing to ignore this. There has been minor conflicts caused by this in the past, but nothing major yet.
Iranians are very proud (as of now), they are probably not willing to accept a compromise with China. After all, Pakistan had a rocky relationship with China before a string of total military defeats to India.
In conclusion, Iran might work with China now. But I really do not expect a long term alliance or relationship. The moment Israel and the US stop being a problem with Iran, I would bet on the likelihood of conflict between Iran and China.
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I agree with this and want to add a little bit. Since Russia is in this mix, as well, one has to consider its position. Russia is still smarting from the end of the Cold War. Its relations with China, despite and pretense, are strictly economic. So long as China is willing to purchase Russian military hardware, Russia will be a friend to PRC. Russia will not allow itself to play "second fiddle" to China in any way. If a better opportunity came along for Russia to advance without China, China would be dumped in a heartbeat. The Sino-Soviet Conflict of 1969 is an example of these nations at loggerheads and it wouldn't surprise me if another incident occurred if one felt short-changed by the other. Russia's interest in Iran is strictly geographic; Caspian Sea access. Supporting the nation on the other side of a buffering inland sea is a no-brainer, regardless of any true disagreements with that regime. Any nation that controls Iran will be seen as a threat to Russia for this reason alone.
There is one and only one lynchpin uniting these three very disagreeable allies; disagreement with the United States. The easiest way to deal with Iran is to leave them be and let them and their "allies" chew on each other for a while.