While I laugh at doomsday prophecies from European "talking heads" who have dug their own holes....
The reality is the dollar is going to weaken significantly. Worldwide players do what they do - but the reason for the future weakness of the dollar does not lie with China, or with the Euro, it lays at the feet of the last 11 years of US governance, along with quite a bit of history farther back....
As much as I don't care for him, Bill Clinton did balance the budget for the US. Granted - he was dragged kicking and screaming to it - but he did it. The first Bush didnt, the last Bush didn't (didn't even try!), Obama sure hasn't made any efforts either.
The dollar is weak because the government that controls it has no financial restraint, has a burgeoning and ever growing debt, and has shown no intention during recent history to correct this problem. As long as the politicians (on both sides) talk about "cutting the deficit" in terms of actually cutting the deficits GROWTH, instead of doing something sane like making the government run in "the black" on the balance sheet - the dollar will continue to weaken.
Yes - China does what it can to manipulate the currency to their benefit. Yes, European fiscal insanity has played a role.
But when it comes to the dollar growing ever weaker - actions such as unrestrained spending and quantitative easing (in all its forms - including TARP) have undermined the strength of the dollar. You want to see where the blame lies - look at Washington DC for the last decade+.
That is just the way it is..
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Good Hunting!
Captain Haplo
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