I'm not doubting your math, it's the tacit I'm questioning.
1 to 1.49 Your objective is to interdict enemy shipping in the Marshalls.
A 10 kn. search will give you more contacts in a given period if time.
Weather you get 12 contacts or 2 or 3 isn't all that important. If they aren't there they aren't there. What is important is to interdict as many as you can in the most efficient way possible and in the shortest time.
According to the math that is a 10 kn. search. There will be another boat along to replace yours. The objective is to cut off supplies to the Marshalls not stay on patrol longer. If I come home with torpedoes in the tubes but have 6 kills in three weeks patrolling I have done my job. Someone else comes homes with the same results but stayed 4 and a half weeks, not so good, at least one ship that I sank the other guy didn't and the Marshalls got resupplied. My patrol wasn't cut short costing contacts but the most efficient way to conduct business. My short patrol will be followed up by another boat to continue the operation and he will get the ship I didn't get in the next week and a half.
There are places where a static patrol is good, Tawi Tawi is one. Others have been mentioned.
I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the zig zag thing. The contacts are now moving through the area at a reduced speed overall and I would think that would increase to ratio in favor of a dynamic search?
@ gi_dan If I'm in the Marshalls, I'd do my time and head to Truk or Rabaul as soon as I could.
Magic
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Reported lost 11 Feb. 1942
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