Any use of theory with "just" is usually a misuse of the scientific term. "Just a theory" is what we see when religious people talk about theories. (I know you aren't doing this, but it's a pet peeve)
A theory is a model that explains known observations, and can predict new observations.
History has no real "model" (I won't hold my breath for Asimovian psychohistory), and cannot really make decent predictions.
Theoretical physics is absolutely predictive. Particle accelerators looking for predicted particles, or watching eclipses to check on general relativity. When first proposed, they are hypotheses. "Theory" is actually a high bar compared to the common english meaning (relativity is now called a theory, but when written it was the "principle" of relativity).
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"Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one." — Thomas Paine
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