Quote:
Originally Posted by Takeda Shingen
I disagree with your assesement of Gingrich/Romney. While I do agree with you in that Romney would not beat Obama, I do not see Gingrich as the stronger candidate in the general election. Gingrich polls well within the 'Fox NEWS demographic', but has significant problems with moderates and independents. Romney, by contrast, fares much better among these groups. That is the group that must be courted as, let's face it, the Fox and MSNBC crowds are voting for their D's and R's no matter who runs.
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Takeda - you make a good point, but one that misses a few important realities. Its necessary to say that Romney gets more independant voters RIGHT NOW than Gingrich would - but we have what - 10 months roughly before the election? If you have watched the SC battle closely, you see how much can change in 1 week - so how much can change in 7 or 8 months once a nominee for "team r" has been locked in?
Gingrich knows how to pull the "reagan democrats" - the so called blue dog dems, and the independants. Look at his stance on immigration for example - which is much less "hard right" than Romney or Santorum. He chooses his battles carefully, and has learned a LOT about when to hold the line on which issues require it to keep the base happy.
Seriously - if Gingrich wins - I would almost bet that Barack refuses to debate him. There is no way Obama can win a debate against Gingrich - all a debate will do is give Newt more opportunities to solidify the "silent majority" - the center right independants of this country - that are the key to getting elected. If you think the center right can look at Obama and Newt and choose Obama after the last 4 years, then your definition of where the center is - has to be incorrect.
This is the key - voters don't like Obama - they want a change of direction and he won't even offer it - "team r" does - and in the end "team r" is much closer to the general electorate than Obama is.