Hi Leitender,
thanks for doing some more tests
Just a few comments:
1.) The 44kn speed setting was not used on u-boats until middle of 1942, IIRC. I don't know whether it also holds for SH3, but in SH4 the failure rate depends on the speed setting. Therefore, I think one should exclude the 44kn setting from testing.
2.) At 15m/s wind speed and a running depth of 1m the torpedo should not even run 300m.
3.) I have the feeling that the distance at which a premature explosion happens is equally distributed, i.e., an equal percentage of torpedoes explodes at x meters and y meters. This is historically wrong because many torpedoes exploded right after the arming distance.
4.) Both historically and in SH3 most early-war shots were/are short-distance shots (<2000m). Thus, I think the premature explosions at distances greater than, let's say, 4000m are not really relevant.
Cheers, LGN1
PS: If you look at your 30kn results, there is only one premature explosion below 2000m and only three below 4000m, i.e., approx. 19%.