I agree with you in principle, LGN1, however I'd like to point out some things:
1) It is to be taken utmost care to ensure that the failiures modelled do not add to those already programmed by the original game/modder. Since the only ones hardcoded till now were related to sea-state and pistol, I suppose that what you have in mind is that the hardcode fix should simply overrides both those with whatever probabilities you set.
2) The problem is that by doing so, the rate of failiures would be the same when using, f.e. magnetic or impact pistol, and when shooting in bad or good weather, which is not realistic. That should be adressed IMHO as follows:
a) In bad weather, there shall always be increased possibilities of failiure, no matter what pistol or depth is used.
b) The player should have a desire to use the magnetic pistol, even if it might prove more faulty. Setting the same dud rate for pistol and impact would accomplish this, because if facing the same odds, the player will always prefer to have a chance to "break the back" of the target with an impact below the keel.
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For instance, today we know that the torpedoes ran deeper than set. If you know this you simply set your torpedo as close to the surface as possible in SH3 and (in most cases) your problem is solved.
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Not so if you program the depth variation at random and exclude the pistol from triggering if the torpedo is less than 1 metres deep. That would simulate "porpoising torpedoes" quite well. Since tha player knows anything can happen, he will set the correct depth and pray the torpedo doesn't malfunction.
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The same holds for the influence of the impact angle. We know that if it is too large we will have a dud. Therefore, we only launch torpedoes which will have an impact angle close to 90°. And since we know that the premature detonation probability in SH3 increases with the range, we try to get as close as possible.
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Real Kaleuns were well aware of both those two points, so no need to adress them specifically.