[Skybird]

I wanted to post the following in a separate threat, when seeing this one. I now insert it here.

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As was to be feared, the removal of iron-fisted hardliners that kept Islamic fundamentalism and sentiment somewhat in check in several Arab countries, has started to backfire against the only real democracy in the region, Israel.

The Arab Spring, as it is euphemistically called, amongst other countries freed Egypt of Mubarak, who was supressing the ultra-fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood with brute force. Now, the brotherhood already is the politically probably best organised and set-up party in Egypt, having organised itself much much faster than anyone believed possible, even me. The results we see: they have started to agitate against tourism and especially want to ban alcoholic drinks and uncovered female bodies even for tourists on the beaches, in hotels, and tourist ressorts. More important, the relations to Israel had cooled down already before the Israelis in an unclear incident shot five Egypt border guards some time ago, for which Israel gave a full-scaled diplomatic and official apology. The Israeli embassy has been place of confrontations between protesters and the police in recent weeks, but last night, the violence turned so dangerous that the whole staff was evacuated and fled to Israel, with the mob managing to climb into rooms on higher floors and throwing documents out of the windows.

US embassy in Iran, anyone?

For Israel, the loss of the long-lasting and solid relation with Mubarak's Egypt, is a very significant loss, and a security risk to it's very existence that cannot be overestimated. And while to their relief nobody seems to care to free Islamism in Syria by removing the hostile but "identified" Assad regime, to which the Israelis hold an attitude of that at least thry can calculate him and know what they have to expect from him, a new front has opened to Israel which maybe is the most threatening of them all, except the Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas axis. And that is Turkey.

Turkey wants to profilate itself as the new "big man" in the region, which made Erdoghan publicly defending Gaddafi and Assad until just months ago, calling the Syrians and the Iranians their close friends, defending the Iranian nuclear program (maybe because Turkey wants nukes by itself, too?), and claiming that it is impossible that Assad does any crimes against humanity and human rights, because as a true Muhammeddan he is impossible to do any evil at all - original tone Erdoghan. The Gaza flotilla last year was a Turkish provocation aimed at both Israel, and the Arab world that Turkey wanted to conquer with a charm offensive, claiming for itself the status as the only true and honest broker of Palestinian and Arabs' interests. Especially the Osmans - a broker of Arab interests...? After that kind of history of Osman-Arab relations...??? With the Gaza 2 flotilla having faltered this year, Turkey insisted on an apology of Israel over the death of Turkish acitivists that were shot by Israeli commandos in direct self-defence after a raging mob tried to kill the boarding soldiers. Israel so far offered compensation payments, and expressed its regret over the death of those mobsters. But since this is notz about apologies,m but about humiliating Israel, the Turks are not satisfied, and like with many things of their past, for example the Armenian genocide, they have problems with their own responsibility in orchestrating and designing the flotilla plan, too.

With the UN recently having entangled itself once again with that self-contradicting report - that says that the Israeli blockade of Gaza is legal and according to International Law, but implying that enforcing the blockade and the self defence of boarding commandos was excessive and illegitimate - Turkey saw the need for action once again. While earlier this year it seemed as if the Arab Spring, freeing also many young people who did not care so much for Islamism and Arab great power fantasies (to the Turks great and unwelcomed surprise), but for personal freedoms and Western-style everyday life and access to media and internet, Turkey was in danger of loosing it's major propaganda tool of appeal for the Arabs. No wonder then, that they now try to mob Israel even more, even challenging international law over the blockade. They know that the law says the blockade is only valid as long as the blockading force does not allow a single blockade runner passing through. There cannot be a single excemption from the rule, for legal reasons.

But is it only about Turkish superpower ambitions and attempts to become the dominant force in the region? This week, Turkey has openly threatened military force against Israel if Israel would enforce the blockade against a Turkish blockade runner. But more important, Turkey also threatened military force against Malta (that just has lost its only military naval basis in a big explosion of ammunition bunkers some months ago) in case of Malta doing seabed explorations in the Eastern mediterranean, and in waters that the Turks claim to be theirs around Cyprus. Because there is something that you also find offshore the beach of Gaza : gas.

The mixture is dangerous. A - at least formally - member of NATO, Turkey, threatens offgensive military operation against sovereign nations in the region for constructed allegations, the EU says nothign about that threat to Israel and Malta, NATO says nothing about that too, Britain just silently hopes for something, France even wants to increase the pressure on Israel by wanting the EU to recognise a Palestinian state, and Washington shows to be completely helpless over two of its former key allies slowly moving their hands to the other's throat. Everybody is busy, everybody cries or yells - and Iran sits on the fenceline and uses the opportunity to silenty move ahead with the nuclear weapon program, while it became known 2 weeks ago that the watchdog has supressed documents giving strong evidence already several years ago for the existence of an Iranian weapon program.

Turkey is not over a union with the Arabs, but in true Osmanic spirit wants to dominate them. It also is not about the Palestinians in Gaza, but about the gas in the Eastern mediterranean. The anti-semitism just comes as a free ingredient of principal Islam, which has hated Jews already since Muhammad hated them.

The position of Israel is not good. The EU's attitude towards Israel is underhanded and split-tongued, at best. The majority of the UN is openly hostile towards Israel, and pro-Islamic. Add to this that the current civil protest of unseen proportions in Israel also has gained its starting energy from the youth revolutions in the area.

Mortgages of an Arab Spring.

Germany btw still delivers weapons and military platforms to Turkey. Wikileaked documents showed months ago that Washington internally has given up Turkey years ago and does no longer count it as a trustworthy ally, the Americans already score it as a country fallen to Islamic fundamentalism. I wonder to what degree Turkey has geined military key technology from Europe, the US, and Israel in the past. Anyhow: it was a very bad idea to trade that.

Where does it all head for? I don'T know, but I have my fears. The threats from Turkey against Europe and Israel alike do raise alarming concerns. And still nobody in the EU wants to recognise it, with some players m aybe cynically calculating against Israel and for Turkey in order to get their own share of the gas-pie.

What did Nietzsche say? "Nations are the coldest of all monsters." And I know absolutely no exception from that. Israel's eccentric foreign minister Lieberman wants to retaliate by suporting the AKP obviously militarily, and wanting to hurt the Turks also by raising international support for pro-Armenian campaings over the genocide commited by the Turks. No doubt thjat Turkey will retaliate against this, too.

And Washington? Washington sees both its influence and financial power declining. Sooner or later they will deliver more military hightech to Israel. Or not - with respect to the oil-rich potenates in the region, in Saudi Arabia, and paying tribute to this precious thing called Arab Sporing in Egypt and Libya?

The world was easier during the cold war.