It depends on what you mean by winning. A good IJN player can certainly get a points victory - the famous Autovictory - but, imo, they have to fulfill certain criteria in order to achieve it.
I think Autovictory is only possible before mid 43 when US and Allied production tips the scales permanently into their favour. After this time Japan has virtually no chance because, quite simply, the US can replace virtually everything he loses. Japan can't.
Before this point, Japan stands a good chance if the player is good enough. I think he must commit, even before the game starts, to one of three options: Take Australia; take Pearl and several other high value secondary bases; take India. To the best of my recollection no one has achieved the last of these three options so far. The IJN player would also have to decisively beat the Allies in a succession of naval battles to garner the points from the sinking of capital ships.
Stealhead, If you are just starting out I recommend you play the Guadalcanal scenario a couple of times as a tutorial. It's a great starter because it gives you experience and training of several key facets of the game straight away: Amphibious assaults and operations, land combat, setting up airbases and maintaining your LBA umbrellas, carrier ops and supply movement. All of these are important but in the grand campaign in might be months before you get a chance to try some of them.
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