Could you tell if the group was zigging, they almost always do when they know you're there, so that can throw things off if you set up at the end of the zig and they go into the next one.
Take two quick stad measurements, you can get a decent speed in 5 seconds and like Wern said, if you have to guess shoot a good spread. Most BB groups slow down to either 14 or 12kts when they go into zigs.
Plus, they will see the torp wake and often speed up or slow down to dodge.
Stock traffic may spawn TF about anywhere, why I prefer RSRD, much better scripted traffic.
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